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For Posterity: Predictions for the June, 7 2018 Ontario election

This post was made on June 7, 2018 at 9:23 PST

Note: 63 seats is required for a majority government.

CBC Poll Tracker (Eric Grenier)

“89.7% Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning a majority”

Seat Predictions:

OPC: 78
NDP: 45
OLP: 1

EKOS

“EKOS Predicts PC Majority”

Seat Predictions / Popular Vote:

OPC: 67-75 / 39.1%
NDP: 41-49 / 35.1%
OLP: 5-10 / 18.9%
Green: 0-1 / 5%

IPSOS

“Tories Poised for Majority”

Popular Vote:

OPC: 39%
NDP: 36%
OLP: 19%
Green: 6%

Mainstreet

“PCs On Course To Form Government”

Popular Vote:

OPC: 39%
NDP: 34.3%
OLP: 20.2%
Green: 4.9%

Forum

“Forum Predicts a Progressive Conservative Majority”

Seat Predictions / Popular Vote:

OPC: 76 / 39%
NDP: 39 / 34%
OLP: 9 / 21%

Barry Kay, Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy (see also)

Conservative Majority

Seat Predictions / Popular Vote:

OPC: 69 / 38%
NDP: 50 / 37%
OLP: 4 / 19%
Green: 1

Advanced Symbolics

Conservative Majority

Seat Predictions:

OPC: 74
NDP: 49
OLP: 1

Warren Kinsella 

Conservative Majority

Seat Predictions:

OPC: 72
NDP: 47
OLP: 4
Green: 1

Paul Tuns

Conservative Majority

Seat Predictions:

OPC: 71
NDP: 51
OLP: 2

My friend Doug

Conservative Majority

Seat Predictions / Popular Vote:

OPC: 80 / 41%
NDP: 36 / 36%
OLP: 7 / 19%
Green: 1 / 3%