Fun Facts About the 2017 Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Election

Andrew ScheerOn May 27, 2017, the Conservative Party of Canada elected Andrew Scheer as their new leader.

The data on this page comes from this spreadsheet provided by Kevin O'Donnell of OttWatch.ca, as linked to in this CBC story by Éric Grenier. O'Donnell claims the data was pulled from the Conservative Party's website during the election. The party itself has made very little data publicly available, presumably to avoid embarrassment.

FIRST BALLOT POPULAR VOTE


NAME
TOTAL VOTES
PERCENT
Maxime Bernier
38,304
27.1%
Andrew Scheer
30,458 21.4%
Erin O'Toole
16,915
12.0%
Brad Trost
12,784
9.0%
Michael Chong
11,816
8.4%
Pierre Lemieux
11,327
8.0%
Kellie Leitch
9,003
6.4%
Lisa Raitt
4,739
3.4%
Kevin O'Leary (withdrawn, but on ballot)
1,694
1.2%
All others
4,322
3.1%
TOTAL VOTES
141,362
100%

FINAL (13th) BALLOT

NAME
TOTAL VOTES
POINTS
PERCENT OF POINTS
PERCENT OF VOTES (all)
PERCENT OF VOTES (counted)
Scheer
62,593
17,221.2
50.95%
44.3%
53.0%
Bernier
55,544
16,577.8
49.05%
39.3%
47.0%
Neither
23,225
4,201*
N/A
16.3%
N/A
TOTALS
141,362 33,800
100%
99.9%
100%

* Points for "neither" candidate reflect those points that were "lost" during multiple rounds of voting, on account of eliminated candidates whose voters had not ranked either Scheer or Bernier. Since "neither" can't be elected, the "counted" column reflects only votes for Bernier and Scheer.

ROTTEN BOROUGHS

Under the rules of the 2017 Tory leadership race (as governed by section 10.10 of the Conservative Party Constitution) each parliamentary riding in Canada voted separately. Specifically, the system worked like this: each riding was given 100 "points" to award to the various candidates, with the points distributed in sync with each candidate's share of the popular vote (a candidate winning 37% of the vote gets 37 points, etc). Since there are 338 parliamentary ridings in Canada, there were 33,800 points distributed.

The party used an instant runoff-style ballot, wherein voters were asked to rank the candidates. If no candidate won more than 50% of the total points based on his or her first place rankings across Canada, a new round of vote-tabulating would occur. The worst-performing candidate would be removed from the count, and their points would now go to whoever their voters put in second-place (theoretically reflecting who these voters would have voted for in the absence of their most-liked candidate). This process of removal and redistribution continued until someone passed the 50% points mark. It took 13 rounds before Andrew Scheer narrowly crossed the 50% threshold. Stephen Taylor posted a link to an animated depiction of how it all went down.

This was a controversial system for several reasons, the main one being the vast numerical disparity of Conservative Party members (ie, voters) from riding to riding.

Here is a list of the 54 ridings that are recorded as having less than 100 voters. They collectively distributed 5,400 points to help decide the new Conservative leader, or about 16% of the total. The vast majority are in Quebec, a notoriously uncompetitive province for the Conservatives. They were overwhelmingly swept by Maxime Bernier, and explain why he lost the popular vote by a larger margin than he did with points.

"Winners" refers to the candidate who received the most votes on first-ballot. "2015 CPC %" refers to the percentage of the vote the Conservative Party won in that riding during the 2015 general election.

RIDING
PROV
VOTERS
2015 CPC %
WINNER
Nunavut
NU
16
25%
Bernier
Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine
QC 19
6%
Bernier
Repentigny
QC 19
11%
Bernier
Rivière-du-Nord
QC 20
9%
Bernier
Labrador
NL
24
14%
Scheer
Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou
QC 27
9%
Bernier
La Pointe-de-l'Île
QC 30
8%
Bernier
Terrebonne
QC 31
11%
Bernier
Manicouagan
QC 35
10%
Bernier
Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères
QC 37
10%
Bernier
Bourassa
QC 37
9%
Bernier
Laurentides–Labelle
QC 40
10%
Bernier
Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie
QC 40
4%
Bernier/Chong(tie)
Acadie–Bathurst
NB 41
8%
Bernier
Honoré-Mercier
QC 41
13%
Bernier
Alfred-Pellan
QC 44
11%
Bernier
Bonavista–Burin–Trinity
NL 45
10%
Bernier
Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel
QC 45
11%
Bernier
Montcalm
QC 46
10%
Bernier
Montarville
QC 47
11%
Bernier
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles
QC 47
11%
Bernier
Hochelaga
QC 49
7%
Bernier
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin
QC 49
12%
Bernier
Papineau
QC 52
5%
Bernier
Jonquière
QC 53
17%
Scheer
Longueuil–Saint-Hubert
QC 53
9%
Bernier
Sherbrooke
QC 53
9%
Bernier
Trois-Rivières
QC 54
19%
Bernier
Long Range Mountains
NL
55
12%
Bernier
Thérèse-De Blainville
QC 57
12%
Bernier
Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia
QC 61
6%
Scheer
Mirabel
QC 63
10%
Bernier/Scheer(tie)
Beloeil–Chambly
QC 64
9%
Bernier
Châteauguay–Lacolle
QC 66
11%
Bernier
Chicoutimi–Le Fjord
QC 66
16%
Bernier
Joliette
QC 67
10%
Bernier
Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne
QC 68
10%
Bernier
Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame
QC 69
18%
Bernier
Madawaska–Restigouche
QC 69
16%
Bernier
La Prairie
QC 71
12%
Bernier
Saint-Maurice–Champlain
QC 71
16%
Scheer
Québec
QC 74
22%
Bernier
Abitibi–Témiscamingue
QC 79
7%
Scheer
Ahuntsic-Cartierville
QC 81
7%
Bernier
Winnipeg North
MB
81
15%
Bernier
Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques
QC 83
8%
Scheer
Churchill–Keewatinook Aski
MB
84
10%
Bernier
LaSalle–Émard–Verdun
QC 91
7%
Bernier
Laurier–Sainte-Marie
QC 93
4%
Chong
Avalon
NL
94
11%
Bernier
Vimy
QC 94
13%
Bernier
Saint-Jean
QC
98
11%
Scheer
Humber River–Black Creek
ON
98
20%
Bernier
Beauport–Limoilou
QC 99
31%*
Bernier
TOTAL
54 ridings representing 5,400 points, 16% of total

* Conservative candidate was elected.


RIDINGS WHERE MICHAEL CHONG CAME IN FIRST

Michael Chong ran, essentially, as a Liberal. It is revealing to observe where his flavour of "conservatism" was most popular — generally speaking, urban Ontario ridings where Conservatives fare poorly.

NAME
PROV
VOTERS
2015 CPC %
Wellington–Halton Hills
ON
1,337
51%*
Ottawa Centre
ON
1,083
15%
Guelph
ON
641
26%
University–Rosedale
ON
812
18%
Parkdale–High Park
ON
512
13%
Toronto–St. Paul's
ON
735
27%
Toronto–Danforth
ON
415
10%
Spadina–Fort York
ON
551
16%
Toronto Centre
ON
461
12%
Davenport
ON
250
11%
Vancouver East
BC
278
11%
Beaches–East York
ON
397
16%
Kitchener Centre
ON
468
30%
Halifax
NS
334
9%
Hamilton Centre
ON
248
14%
Winnipeg Centre
MB
174
12%
Vancouver Kingsway
BC
171
21%
Outremont
QC
121
10%
TOTAL
18 ridings representing 1,800 points, 5% of total

* Chong's riding.

RIDINGS WHERE BRAD TROST CAME IN FIRST

On the other end of the spectrum, Brad Trost ran on the most stereotypically right-wing platform. It's hard to generalize-at-glance where he was most popular.

NAME
PROV
VOTERS
2015 CPC %
Markham–Unionville
ON
877
49%*
Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill
ON
832
45%
Edmonton Riverbend
AB
1,090
50%*
Don Valley North
ON
636
38%
Scarborough–Agincourt
ON
460
38%
Waterloo
ON
765
32%
Richmond Hill
ON
576
43%
Richmond Centre
BC
337
43%*
Scarborough North
ON
315
27%
Burnaby South
BC
327
27%
Steveston–Richmond East
BC
288
38%
Scarborough Centre
ON
241
32%
Brossard–Saint-Lambert
QC
162
13%
New Westminster–Burnaby
BC
261
20%
Vancouver South
BC
177
34%
TOTAL
15 ridings representing 1,500 points, 4% of total

* Conservative candidate was elected.